Field notes · 2026-03-18
Failed Range Breaks on Hong Kong Opens
Failed breaks are where many personal rule sheets fall apart. A trader sees the range high give way, enters, then watches price slide back through the midpoint while the gap still sits unfilled overhead.
In the Intensive we collect failed breaks from Hong Kong cash opens and ask what the tape showed in the fifteen minutes before the break: accelerating volume, a quiet drift, or a single spike on thin prints. The texture of the break matters as much as the level.
Our rule sheets never promise that a failure will reverse to the opposite side of the range. They do require that a break which returns inside the box within a set number of bars be treated as information, not as an insult.
If you attend a Weekend Chart Study Lab, spend the first hour marking only failed breaks from the prior month. Leave the successful breaks for later. The eye learns more from the ones that did not hold.